Premier League forecast
This model is a probability distribution based on 50,000+ simulations of the season.
| Pos | Club | Pld | Pts | Est. Pts. | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 12 | 76.8 | 51.7% | 97.4% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 5 | 15 | 74.9 | 38.5% | 94.9% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 10 | 64.1 | 4.5% | 59.7% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 5 | 9 | 63.5 | 3.5% | 54.6% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Brentford | 5 | 9 | 57.0 | 0.6% | 21.1% | 0.6% |
| 6 | Manchester United | 5 | 5 | 56.8 | 0.5% | 20.6% | 0.8% |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 5 | 3 | 54.5 | 0.2% | 12.9% | 1.7% |
| 8 | Leeds United | 5 | 9 | 53.7 | 0.2% | 10.2% | 1.9% |
| 9 | Chelsea | 5 | 7 | 53.7 | 0.2% | 10.5% | 2.3% |
| 10 | Sunderland | 5 | 4 | 51.3 | 0.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| 11 | Everton | 5 | 9 | 50.9 | 0.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% |
| 12 | Newcastle United | 5 | 8 | 48.1 | 0.0% | 2.3% | 10.1% |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 5 | 46.7 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 13.2% |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 6 | 45.4 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 18.1% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 4 | 45.1 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 19.2% |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 43.8 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 24.3% |
| 17 | Fulham | 5 | 2 | 43.2 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 26.3% |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 2 | 39.2 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 48.3% |
| 19 | Hull City | 5 | 8 | 38.8 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 51.7% |
| 20 | Coventry City | 5 | 3 | 35.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 72.2% |
Forecast evolution
TitleTop fourRelegation
TitleTop fourRelegation
How reliable is this?
Tracking the accuracy of the model agaisnt historical results shows that the model is well-aligned. Variance here illustrates the volatitly of real results against the model.